Buick Invitational Fantasy Outlook

Although the PGA Tour's 2008 season official kicked off in Hawaii three weeks ago, for a lot of fans the season doesn't really begin until Tiger Woods comes out of hibernation. Once again, Woods has chosen the Buick Invitational in La Jolla, Calif., to be the first event. The field is stacked with talent and the marquee course looks like a brute.

Put your shovels away, set your chairs to full-recline and wrestle the remotes away from the kiddies. Golf is officially back.

It's Not Too Early to Take Tiger
Fantasy golf leagues typically come in one of two types:
1. Select any player you like to win that week's event, but you can only select each player once during the season.
2. Select one player from several groups based on world ranking. For example, one player from Group A (golfers ranked No. 1 - No. 9), Group B (No. 10 - No. 24), Group C (No. 25 - No. 50) and so on...

If your fantasy league only allows you to select a player once during a season, you have to consider burning your Tiger Woods pick right now. Sure, this will be his first event of the year and we don't know how the whole Kelly Tilghman fiasco may or may not affect his performance, but Woods owns this course. Tiger has won the last three Buick Invitationals, four of the last five, and in 10 appearances he's never finished worse than a tie for 10th.

The only reason not to select Woods this week is because your fantasy team would only collect $936,000 for his victory. If you picked Tiger to win one of the four majors, The Players or a World Golf Championship and he comes through, he'd earn your fantasy team more money. (You've gotta love the fantasy world, where $936,000 is not an enormous check.)

Remember: Picking winners is always good, but maximizing the dollars your "star picks" earn is critical.

The Phil Factor
Phil Mickelson, a San Diego-native and two-time winner of the Buick Invitational, is also slated to make his 2008 PGA Tour debut this week. Probably.

According to the Associated Press, "Mickelson has suffered from heavy congestion, shortness of breath and fatigue since October." However, as of Wednesday morning he was planning to play the Pro-Am, so look for Lefty to play in the main event.

It would be a shame not to have Mickelson in the field this week, because according to Dave Pelz (Mickelson's short game guru), Phil is enthusiastic and eager to get the season started. At the PGA Merchandise Show in Orlando last week, Pelz said he and Mickelson worked for three days in San Diego last week getting ready for Torrey Pines. Pelz said Phil's full swing has never looked better going into a season (thanks to Mickelson's work with Butch Harmon).

With Woods in the field and Phil likely to be less than 100 percent, save your Mickelson pick for later this season and don't select him as your Group A player.

Savvy Buick Invitational Fantasy Picks :

• Rory Sabbatini, South Africa
World Ranking, 10
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: T5 (2002)
No one gets under Tiger Woods' skin like Sabbatini. While his comments about the game's best player didn't make anyone at Nike too happy (he no longer is affiliated with The Swoosh, having switched to Adams Golf in December), this guy can really play. Six of his eight rounds in 2008 have been in the 60s, and if this great ball striker lets his clubs do the talking, he could be a factor.

• Charles Howell III, USA
World Ranking, 41
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: Runner-up (2007, 2005)
Howell made an equipment change in the off-season from Callaway to Bridgestone. Maybe it was a smart move, because after winning the Nissan Open last February at Riviera, he had a disappointing end to the PGA Tour season and an awful Presidents Cup. Howell rebounded somewhat and finished tied for fifth at the Mercedes-Benz Championship three weeks ago. Don't be surprised if he snares a top 15 finish and earns fantasy leaguers a decent return for a player outside the spotlight.

• Brandt Snedeker, USA
World Ranking, 49
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: 3rd (2007)
In his only appearance in the Buick Invitational, Snedeker, the PGA Tour's 2007 Rookie of the Year, shot 61-70-74-71 to finish in solo third. He'll have positive memories of this event and proved that low round was no fluke. He won't be intimidated by big names and may be entertaining thoughts of sneaking onto the Ryder Cup team. A strong showing at Torrey Pines would help him impress Paul Azinger.

• Jerry Kelly, USA
World Ranking, 52
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: T8 (2002)
Kelly has continued to improve his course management skills and mental game, and if the Wisconsin native can shrug off his sorrow over Green Bay's loss to the Giants, he might be able to earn a top 10 finish. In his only event of 2008, Kelly shot four rounds in the 60s and finished in eighth place at the Sony Open.

• Ryan Moore, USA
World Ranking, 72
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: T16 (2007)
The former UNLV All-American has only played this event twice, missing the cut in 2006 but finishing tied for 16th last year. Moore has quietly been playing well for the past six months and last week tied for fifth at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. Picking him as a Group C or Group D player could be a savvy selection.

Stars not to pick this week

• Jim Furyk, USA
World Ranking, 4
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: MC
Furyk has competed in the Buick Invitational only twice, and missed the cut in both appearances. He may be one of the straightest drivers on Tour, and he'll certainly want to create some positive mojo in anticipation of this summer's U.S. Open, but Furyk doesn't seem to be the horse for this course.

• Vijay Singh, Fiji
World Ranking, 11
Best Finish at Buick Invitational: T11 (2002)
Singh has played five Buick Invitationals and never recorded a top 10 finish. His best performance at Torrey Pines was a tie for 11th in 2002 and in 2007 he finished tied for 39th. Don't worry, though. The man with more wins after turning 40-years-old than any other golfer in history has more Ws in him ... pick him later this season.

About the Course
Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course has two 18-hole layouts and both will be in use during the Buick Invitational. There are severe elevation changes on each course -- along with stunning views of the Pacific Ocean -- but the pros scorch the 6,874-yard North course while they barely survive the 7,569-yard South course. Last year the average score on the North was 68.67, while the average score on the South was 73.03. The third and fourth rounds will each be played on the South, and it will be the only layout used when Torrey Pines hosts the 2008 U.S. Open in June.

Neither course is especially harsh to players who stray too far from the fairways, and the mists that often roll off the Pacific and over the courses keep the landing areas and Poa Annua greens soft. As a result, long hitters typically enjoy an advantage at Torrey Pines, but the somewhat bumpy greens can be tricky. -- David Dusek (Photos by Robert Beck/SI)