FBR Open Fantasy Outlook
If you used your only Tiger Woods pick of the season at last week's Buick Invitational, your safe play banked $936,000.
But smart fantasy competitors know that maximizing a player's earning potential is crucial. If you did NOT pick Woods, commit to selecting him at the U.S. Open, where he'd earn $1.26 million for a victory. Woods will be a heavy favorite to win the Masters this year (which will award the winner just over $1.3 million), but he won't be challenged by as many players at the U.S. Open. Tiger may love Augusta National, but Torrey Pines is his personal playground and an even safer fantasy play. This week, the PGA Tour rolls into the Valley of the Sun for the FBR Open at TPC Scottsdale. The crowds on the famous par-3 16th hole will be rowdy, the weather will be sunny and a Tiger-less field means that several players have a chance to win the $1.08 million first-prize check. Here are some players worth considering.
Savvy FBR Open Fantasy Picks
Phil Mickelson, USA
World Ranking: 2
Best performance in FBR Open: Winner (2005, 1996)
The fans at TPC Scottsdale will genuflect as Lefty strolls the fairways; the former Arizona State All-American is their hero, and that love could help Phil elevate his game. Mickelson has won this event twice, most recently in 2005, but it's worth remembering that he missed the cut here last season.
In a Tiger-free field, and with a game that got better as last week's tournament wore on, you have to think choosing Phil as your Group A player will earn your fantasy team at least a top-five finish. But picking Mickelson is risky if you can only select a player once this season. If that's the case, consider making Mickelson your pick at the Masters, the Memorial or the PGA Championship, where he could also win and potentially earn more money.
Rory Sabbatini, South Africa
World Ranking: 9
Best performance in FBR Open: T8 (2002)
A tie for third place last week continued Sabbatini's solid West Coast Swing, but picking him to win this week is a big gamble. Sabbatini has finished in the top three the last two weeks, but he finished T59, T20 and T61 in his last three starts at the FBR Open.
Aaron Baddeley, Australia
World Ranking: 17
Best performance in FBR Open: Winner (2007)
Baddeley is one of the best putters on Tour (his 28.26 putts per round in 2007 ranked fourth), and he has started to put himself in position to win more often. Remember, Badds was in the last group on Sunday with Tiger Woods at Oakmont. A Scottsdale resident, this title defense is a home game for Baddeley, who tied for 13th at Torrey Pines. Look for him to play well this week.
Boo Weekley, USA
World Ranking: 46
Best performance in FBR Open: T54 (2007)
Why pick a player whose only appearance in this event was a disappointment? Because Boo Weekley is one of the best ball-strikers on Tour, and his game has been getting better each week this season. Weekley would have finished higher than T19 at Torrey Pines had it not been for a quadruple-bogey 8 on the fifth hole Sunday. Give him a bogey instead, and Weekley would have secured a top-10 finish. If Weekley's putting is decent, he'll compete. If the camouflage-loving Floridian putts well, this could be the week he gets his second PGA Tour win.
Mark Calcavecchia, USA
World Ranking: 50
Best performance in FBR Open: Winner (2001)
Yet another Tour pro who calls the Scottsdale area home, this will be Calcavecchia's 22nd FBR Open, so no one knows the course better. Calcavecchia won the PODS Championship in Tampa last season, and while it might be surprising to see him win this week, another top-10 finish (he has nine top 10s at the FBR) is certainly within reach.
Justin Leonard, USA
World Ranking: 51
Best performance in FBR Open: 2nd (1999, 1996)
Some experts thought the South Course at Torrey Pines was a poor fit for the short-hitting Texan. They were wrong, and Justin Leonard's fifth-place showing last week earned him his sixth top-10 finish in his last seven events. Leonard's stock and confidence are rising, as is his world ranking, so get on the bandwagon before this guy cools off.
Anthony Kim, USA
World Ranking: 65
Best performance in FBR Open: MC (2007)
Kim was another victim of the PGA Tour's new cut rule at Torrey Pines, so he didn't play the weekend after shooting 68-77. There is no denying that he's got talent, and getting snubbed by the new rule should put a fire in his belly. Look for AK to be busy this Saturday and Sunday.
John Rollins, USA
World Ranking: 78
Best performance in FBR Open: 2nd (2007)
John Rollins can be an absolute birdie machine, which is a necessity for any player who wants to win the FBR Open. In a runner-up performance last year, Rollins was 20-under, so he should be looking forward to a return trip to TPC Scottsdale.
Ryuji Imada, Japan
World Ranking: 97
Best performance in FBR Open: T14 (2007)
Another case of a hot player coming to a course where he's had past success. Imada tied for 16th at the Hope and was the runner-up last week to Woods. He's long off the tee, and he seems more sure of himself than he did when he lost to Zach Johnson in a playoff last season at TPC Sugarloaf. Don't be surprised if he is contending for the lead again this weekend.
Players NOT to pick this week
Geoff Ogilvy, Australia
World Ranking: 14
Best performance in FBR Open: T20 (2006)
Ogilvy, who lives in Scottsdale, has a golf swing and temperament that make you want to pick him every week, but the FBR Open has not been kind to this Australian. Ogilvy has failed to earn a top-10 finish in six appearances.
Mike Weir, Canada
World Ranking: 34
Best performance in FBR Open: T5 (2004)
Since 2000, Mike Weir has three top-10 finishes at the FBR, and he won in Scottsdale at the 2007 Frys.com Open in October. However, Weir missed the cut at the FBR in 2006 and tied for 32nd in 2007. At the Buick last week, he withdrew, which brings us to one of the commandments of fantasy golf: "Thou shalt not pick a player the week after he withdraws from a tournament."
Tom Lehman, USA
World Ranking: 132
Best performance in FBR Open: Winner (2000)
This Scottsdale resident is one of golf's all-time great guys, and he is a past winner of this event. Sounds like a good pick from the Group D portion of your league this week, right? Think again. Lehman missed the cut in 2006 and 2007 after finishing T45 in 2005.
J.B. Holmes, USA
World Ranking: 197
Best performance in FBR Open: Winner (2006)
Sure, everyone loved watching this former University of Kentucky star overpower TPC Scottsdale two seasons ago, but in 2007 Holmes made 12 cuts and missed 11. Pick with your head, not your heart.
--David Dusek
Tell us what you think. Is Phil Mickelson going to win his third FBR Open? Will Aaron Baddeley defend his title? Let your opinion be heard by posting a comment below.
Posted by: RL Herbel | Jan 29, 2008 8:01:17 PM
Lefty will be holding the trophy come Sunday evening.
Posted by: sam yarnall | Jan 30, 2008 12:19:28 PM
JOHN DALEY
Posted by: AJ Bolyard | Jan 30, 2008 12:43:52 PM
The FBR seems to have the kind of atmosphere where a young talent can rise to the top. Here is where I think Anthony Kim will really jump start his PGA career. Prediction: Hole-in-one on the famed 16th green.