AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Fantasy Outlook
The AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am is notorious for rounds that take up to six hours to complete thanks to the celebrity hackers who compete alongside the PGA Tour pros. It takes a certain mind-set to play well in this environment, and even the stunning scenery and posh surrounding won't stop fidgety Type A's from going insane out there.
The field at Pebble Beach is weak, with only three of the top 10 players in the world slated to play. You won't see Tiger Woods (1), Steve Stricker (3), Ernie Els (4), Adam Scott (5), Justin Rose (7), Rory Sabbatini (8) or K.J. Choi (9) getting buddy-buddy with George Lopez, Ray Romano, Kenny G or Donald Trump this year. And sadly, Bill Murray won't be around this year either.
Phil Mickelson, USA
World Ranking: 2
Best Finish in this event: Winner (2007, 2005, 1998)
Mickelson, the defending champion, loves the easygoing pace, shooting the breeze with business tycoons and bringing the family to the Monterey Peninsula. Phil's long game was off last weekend in Scottsdale, and he hit only 50% of the fairways and 61% of the greens in regulation. That won't get it done at Pebble Beach.
In a weak field, Mickelson will get a top-10 finish, so he's not a bad choice in an A-B-C-D league, but don't pick him if you only can select him once this season.
Jim Furyk, USA
World Ranking: 6
Best Finish in this event: T3 (1998)
Furyk hits his drives and irons straight, but so far this season his putter has been balky (29.58 putts per round). To justify picking Furyk instead of Mickelson in an A-B-C-D league, your thinking has to be that he's due to play better and will turn in another solid performance in this event. In 11 appearances at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Furyk has four top-10 finishes, including last season's tie for sixth. If you can only pick Furyk once, save him for a major when you can't select Tiger Woods.
Padraig Harrington, Ireland
World Ranking: 10
Best Finish in this event: T30 (2007)
Harrington has played only two events since November (he finished 10th at the Target World Challenge and 11th two weeks ago in Abu Dhabi on the European Tour). This will be the reigning British Open champion's second appearance at this event, but the Irishman will know what to do if it gets windy around Stillwater Cove. He's a solid iron player, a good putter and patient-all good traits this week.
Harrington's win at Carnoustie was a pleasant surprise that won't likely be repeated in 2008, and since he splits his time between the United States and European Tours, you don't get a lot of chances to select him in your league. Picking Harrington to win in this weak field could be a very wise move.
Mike Weir, Canada
World Ranking: 34
Best Finish in this event: Runner-up (2005)
One of the Golden Rules of fantasy golf is "There are horses for courses" and Mike Weir plays great at Pebble Beach. In 10 appearances he's got six top-10 finishes. If you look past last season's missed cut, his worst performance in the previous five years was a tie for fourth! Take Weir this week in your A-B-C-D league, give him serious consideration as the outright winner, and then raise a Molson Export to your pending fantasy victory.
Hunter Mahan, USA
World Ranking: 36
Best Finish in this event: T14 (2006)
This up-and-comer hits it straight off the tee (75% driving accuracy) and gobbles up greens in regulation (82.78), but he is putting like garbage again in 2008. Mahan is averaging 31.90 putts per round this season. He's not a terrible flier pick this week because his ballstriking is so good, but consider yourself warned as Mahan stands over those trick, bouncy six-footers this week.
Jonathan Byrd, USA
World Ranking: 59
Best Finish in this event: T3 (2006)
Byrd, a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, had a better week at the FBR than his tie for 13th would indicate. His final-round 73 was a disappointment (and a surprise), but Byrd is returning to a course where he did well in his last visit. Nothing about this former Clemson star's game blows you away, but he can putt nicely. If he can take solace in his solid play at TPC Scottsdale, selecting him in an A-B-C-D league will look very smart.
Kevin Sutherland, USA
World Ranking: 109
Best Finish in this event: Runner-up (2007)
This is where paying attention to the trends can really pay off in your fantasy league. Sutherland, with all due respect, is an unknown player to most golf fans. However, he was the runner-up to Mickelson in this event last season and quietly earned a tie for fourth place last week at the FBR Open. A hot player going back to a course where he's had success always makes for a smart pick.
Greg Owen, England
World Ranking: 377
Best Finish in this event: Third (2005)
Owen has played this event three times, coming in third in his first appearance, missing the cut in 2006 and tying for fourth in 2007. He hasn't played in a PGA Tour event this season, but with two solid results he is a savvy flier pick in the D Group.
Vijay Singh, Fiji
World Ranking: 11
Best Finish in this event: Winner (2004)
Although he did win this tournament recently, Singh's results this season have been disappointing. He tied for 12th at Kapalua, tied for 45th at the Sony Open, tied for 23rd at Torrey Pines and missed the cut last week at the FBR Open. His world ranking should make him a B player in your league, so picking him is justifiable, but the Big Fijian will right the ship and win somewhere down the line. If you get to pick him only once this season, take a pass on selecting him this week.
Justin Leonard, USA
World Ranking: 51
Best Finish in this event: T4 (1999)
After posting top-10 finishes in six of his last seven events, Leonard finished tied for 43rd last week at the FBR Open. Leonard has only skipped one event in 2008, so fatigue may be setting in for the Texan. Over the last seven years, Leonard has missed the cut twice at Pebble and skipped the event five times.
Davis Love III, USA
World Ranking: 78
Best finish in this event: Winner (2004, 2001)
It's great to see DL3 back and playing after a back injury, then an ankle injury, sidelined him in 2007. While Love is a two-time winner of this event and has the game and demeanor needed for Pebble, you've got to pick your fantasy players based on results. You can't expect Love to come through for your squad in his first event.
Who you think will contend at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am? Will Mickelson make up for not winning the FBR lat week? Will you miss seeing Bill Murray? Tell us what you think. --David Dusek (photo by John Biever/SI)
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