Chamblee on Tiger: 'Here's how it plays out'

The Golf Channel commentator on Tiger's Masters return, how he'll play, and why he won't win

Tiger Woods will return to golf at—where else?—the Masters. How wrong I was. I thought he'd be AWOL until at least the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach in June. "I do plan to return to golf one day ... I don't rule out that it will be this year," he said in his mega mea culpa last month, implying that Georgia was not on his mind. 

So, T-minus three weeks to Woods's return. For insight, Golf Channel commentator and Friend of Flyers Brandel Chamblee called in shortly after Tiger's announcement. Much to discuss: Can Woods win the Masters without a tune-up? Will Elin be there to root him on? Will TMZ sneak through Augusta's gates in a green Port-O-Let? Chamblee and I talk it over. 

CONNELL BARRETT: Brandel, were you surprised by Tiger's decision to return to golf at Augusta, without so much as a warm-up at Putt-Putt? 

BRANDEL CHAMBLEE: No, not one bit. I would have been shocked if he had missed the Masters. Ever since this whole story broke, and Tiger announced he was stepping away from the game, I've been literally asked 100 times a day, "When's Tiger coming back?" I go to Starbucks, and [the barista] Alan always asks, "What do you want, and when's he coming back?" And every morning I say, "Vanilla latte, and I don't know." But Augusta makes the most sense for Tiger's return. 

CB: Exactly. Tiger's all about control, and Augusta can control the media and fans—sorry, "patrons"—better than anyone could at any other event. 

BC: If I was counseling Tiger, I wouldn't let him come back anywhere but Augusta. The fans there have a sense of history and tradition. They'll be respectful of Tiger. But you're still talking about a big distraction, a crazy media event. While everyone's concerned about Tiger, my primary concern is his competitors, the guys playing in Tiger's group and in the groups immediately in front of and behind Tiger. You're talking about eight other players impacted by an absolute feeding frenzy—eight players trying to win a major dealing with the distraction, the cameras, the writers. We've done the math on playing with Tiger. It costs players four shots. This will be so intense that just being near him at Augusta will cost a player two strokes a side.

CB: I sensed Tiger would stay away until the U.S. Open at Pebble, but now I see how Augusta is the perfect place for a comeback.

BC: Augusta controls the media, controls the setting. Tiger and Augusta, in the context of his return, are a match made in heaven. Any questions about the scandal will simply go unanswered. He'll say, "It's my personal life. I'm here to play golf."

CB: But his personal life and his golf game are intertwined. He's been gone because of his personal life.

BC: There is a gray area there with how his personal life will affect his golf. I don't know if we'll see a whole new Tiger, but I think he'll be more respectful and patient with the media. But I don't think he'll give people what they want. Nor should he. It's a personal matter. He'll say "I've already answered that," which he did last month. In terms of his golf, people try to make this analogous to his comeback from knee surgery. That's not apples to apples. That was a physical comeback. This is an emotional one. It's more akin to when he came back from his father's death [in 2006] and missed the cut [at the 2006 U.S. Open].

CB: Good point. Might Tiger miss the cut? Doesn't he need a tune-up? 

BC: I don't think he does. Athletically, he's fine. And emotionally, when he made his mea culpa, that was his public confession, his catharsis. He let some air out of that balloon, expressing his deep sorrow for his mistakes. So he'll be ready to play. He still has three weeks to prepare, to get the rust off, to do reconnoitering of Augusta. Remember, Tiger doesn't have to play his best to win. In 2000, 20001, he was winning events by eight, 12, 15 strokes. He's the one player who has wiggle room where he can win without playing his best. 

CB: Back to the media issue. Do you think Tiger will grant one big tell-all interview with a Diane Sawyer before the Masters?

BC: I would be very surprised. I think Tiger said all he had to say last month.

CB: But he hasn't taken any questions. What happens after Augusta, at Quail Hollow or the Players Championship. If Tiger stays silent, won't those events become traveling circuses, with TMZ and the National Enquirer hounding him?

BC: It's true, he invited the tabloids into the world of golf. He apologized for that. You can count on this: They will never again get anything on him. He won't let them. They will never catch him with prurient pursuits. Only laudable pursuits. And laudable pursuits do not sell newspapers. TMZ will follow him, but they'll go away, because they're not gonna get the quotes, the pictures, the dirt from him. 

CB: So who wins the Masters?

BC: A young kid. I like Rory McIlroy. Golf is ready to turn the page, to reshuffle the superstars. Not that Tiger's going away. I think he will win more majors. He will catch Jack Nicklaus for 18 major wins. He's still got that carrot at the end of the pole. I just think these kids are ready to stamp themselves on the game, to dazzle us, like Watson and Trevino and Jack did in their 20s. I like Rory, or Camilo [Villegas]. But Tiger should be right there. It will be exciting. 

CB: By my math, Tiger tees off in about in 33,467 minutes—but who's counting?

BC: I'm very curious. How's his game? How has all this affected him? I haven't seen him play in a long time. It's special to see the best golfer on the planet, someone with no physical or mental limitations.

CB: No mental limitations we know of. What if Tiger comes back and he's not the same? He's good, not great. There's a history of a player's personal or marital problems affecting performance. Is that possible with Woods?

BC: We're all affected by our experiences off the course. There's no way all of this does not affect him. And you're right about distractions bleeding into your game. But he is so driven. He's like a greyhound chasing a rabbit [Nicklaus' 18 majors wins]. I'll bet he knows some people think that he has maybe lost something, which will make him want it more. I don't think he'd come back unless, in his mind, he's 100 percent ready to win.