Category: U.S. Open odds


June 11, 2012

Vegas insider: Tiger to be favorite at all majors for foreseeable future

Posted at 10:07 PM by Mike Walker

He hasn't won a major in four years, but Tiger Woods is the Las Vegas favorite to win this year's U.S. Open at the Olympic Club in San Francisco, just like he was at Pebble Beach in 2010, the last U.S. Open he was healthy enough to play. And he'll probably be favored at the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion too, no matter what he does this year.

"We're not going to overvalue Tiger," said Chuck Esposito, race and sportsbook director at Sunset Station in Henderson, Nev. "You'll always have money on him, and he'll continue to be the favorite. You don't see anyone else on the horizon who generates such interest."

Woods's odds to win the U.S. Open are 3-to-1* -- meaning a $1 bet on Woods to win pays out $3. No other player has single-digit odds. His win at the Memorial two weeks ago drove those odds down, Esposito said, but Woods still would have been the clear favorite. He said the situation is similar to the Masters, where Woods's win at Bay Hill drove gamblers' interest in the event up and Woods's odds down. (Woods finished T40 at the Masters.)

"It's fun for us when he gets hot at the right time," Esposito said.

Fun and profitable. Esposito said that he expects the total amount wagered on the U.S. Open in Nevada to be in the mid-to-high six figures, and he credits Woods with creating that interest.

"It's similar to LeBron," he said. "Whether you're for Tiger or against him, you're going to tune in to what he does."

The only way Woods wouldn't be the favorite is for someone like Rory McIlroy to start winning majors like Woods used to. "McIlroy would need to dominate and win two, three or even four majors" to replace Woods as the favorite at a major, Esposito said. A tall order. McIlroy missed three straight cuts before finishing T7 at last week's FedEx St. Jude Classic. Woods has missed eight cuts in his entire career as a professional.

After Woods, it's wide open on the board, Esposito said, adding that there have been 14 different winners in the last 14 majors. The next favorites are Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy and a surprising Rickie Fowler, all listed between 10- and 14-to-1. Esposito said Fowler would have been 80- or even 100-to-1 to win the U.S. Open earlier this season, before his win at Quail Hollow and strong showing in the Players Championship. Zach Johnson is also a hot pick, seeing his odds drop from 80- to 100-to-1 to 35-to-1.

After the Mickelson/McIlroy/Fowler group, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner and Matt Kuchar are in the 15- to 20-to-1 range, according to Esposito, and Masters champion Bubba Watson is in the 22-to-1 range with Hunter Mahan and Adam Scott.

Sunset Station sportsbook odds on U.S. Open (subject to change):

Tiger Woods: 3 to 1

Phil Mickelson: 10 to 1

Rory McIlroy: 10 to 1

Rickie Fowler: 12 to 1

Jason Dufner: 12 to 1

Lee Westwood: 14 to 1

Luke Donald: 15 to 1

Matt Kuchar: 18 to 1

Zach Johnson: 35 to 1

*Story updated June 11 to reflect more recent odds on Tiger Woods

June 14, 2011

Mickelson is Vegas favorite in wide-open U.S. Open

Posted at 6:04 PM by Mike Walker

Parity is the new rule in golf, which has been both good and bad for Las Vegas sportsbooks, according to Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at the Tropicana Casino in Las Vegas.

“The betting public will look at the players playing well and see a lot of opportunity,” Esposito said of this week’s wide-open U.S. Open. “But with Tiger everyone wanted to watch. When he made that front-nine charge at the Masters, the crowd here was unbelievable.”

With Woods on the sidelines, Phil Mickelson is the favorite at 10-1, a far cry from days when Woods would be anywhere from 3 to 1 to even money to win a major.

“Now you see favorites in the range of 8 to 1, 10 to 1, and 12 to 1,” Esposito said.

Mickelson was an 8 to 1 favorite at the Masters in April, while Woods was just beneath him at 10 to 1, despite playing poorly leading up to the event. Esposito said a Mickelson win would have casino sportsbooks buzzing, but not like they do when Woods plays well.

"Mickelson does have a huge amount of fans, but with Tiger, whether you love him or hate him, everybody wants to watch," Esposito said.

However, Esposito said he does not expect too much of a drop-off in total amount wagered on the U.S. Open, which he said is in the “high six figures” industry-wide (about 15 percent less than the Masters). The reason is that the anyone-can-win feeling about this year’s U.S. Open is creating interest among the gambling public.

“They’ll be a small drop off because of Tiger, but I think it will be good handle because the tournament is wide-open,” Esposito said.

Proof that no one has settled on a favorite is in the numbers. After Mickelson at 10 to 1, the next favorites are Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood at 15 to 1, followed by Luke Donald at 18 to 1, according to Esposito. Most of the other bigger names are in the 20-50 to 1 range, including Steve Stricker at 35 to 1.

In fact, after Mickelson, the most popular bet to win this U.S. Open is the field (i.e., someone not well-known enough to be listed). Esposito said the field will be listed between 10 to 1 and 8 to 1 by Thursday.

Note: These odds are for news purposes only and are subject to change.





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