U.S. Open odds in Tiger Woods' favor at Bethpage Black

I've never bet on golf in my life, but if I was in Las Vegas this week I might place a wager on Tiger Woods. At even money, it's the best bet you'll find at a casino, with a better chance of coming through than betting on black in roulette. If Woods plays well, he wins. It's that simple. If he plays OK, he'll probably win. If he plays poorly, then a handful of other guys have a legitimate shot. Here's how I'd handicap the 2009 U.S. Open.

The Favorite and the Six Who Can Win

Tiger Woods (even money): Considering Woods won last year on a broken leg, he's the clear choice to win this year at Bethpage. He's rested, he's healthy and it's a course he plays well on. I actually can't imagine Tiger not winning this tournament.

Angel Cabrera (3 to 1): The forgotten man who happens to be the defending Masters champion and a former U.S. Open champion. Cabrera hasn't been consistent, but we know he has all the facets of the game. He's playing at the peak of his powers and he could be on a three-year run of excellence where he's going to contend in big events, like Ernie Els and Sandy Lyle did.

Geoff Ogilvy (3 to 1): Ogilvy has the game and the mentality to win, and he can putt. He's impervious to all the other stuff that wears guys down at majors and he can handle a one-on-one situation on Sunday.

Phil Mickelson (4 to 1): Mickelson is not playing great, but it's a course he likes in a city that likes him. He'll be the sentimental favorite this week as he's dealing with his wife's illness. But he'll need something strange to happen to win, like Tiger losing his driver again. Phil can't win if Tiger plays well. Nobody can.

Retief Goosen (8 to 1): Case of horses for courses. Goosen has proved he has a U.S. Open game and the New York crowd won't bother him. Could anything bother the unflappable Goose? An Old West saloon brawl? An attacking bear?

Steve Stricker (8 to 1): He's playing really well right now and this is a good spot for him.

Henrik Stenson (10 to 1): His game is now at the level where he must be included in the group of contenders. Plus he's not afraid of Tiger, which is not true for most guys in the field.

Guys Who Could Maybe Win if Everything, and I Mean Everything, Goes Their Way

Padraig Harrington (10 to 1): His form has been down this year and he hasn't challenged. Winning a major has more to do with how you're playing at the time than who you are.

Zach Johnson (12 to 1): His ball flight is a low draw which is not great for the U.S. Open. At Bethpage, you need a high, soft shot and Johnson doesn't have one. On the plus side, he's having a good year and we know he can win a big one.

Paul Casey (15 to 1): He is a popular dark-horse pick, but I don't see it. Casey is the one guy other than Sergio I can see being negatively affected by the New York crowd. (The fans haven't forgotten his controversial Ryder Cup comments about Americans.) They say you don't win the Open, the Open wins you. He doesn't feel ready yet.

Brian Gay (15 to 1): He's not great on long courses, but he's great on tight courses. If you can win at Harbour Town, you can compete at a U.S. Open. Plus, he's playing well right now and that's so important.

Jim Furyk (18 to 1): You can't write off a former Open champ who can putt, but it's hard to see Furyk winning Bethpage.

Ernie Els (20 to 1): I give Els an outside chance, although that might be wishful thinking. He is playing a little better and he's had U.S. Open success.

Tim Clark (20 to 1): Wouldn't be the first time a guy won his first tournament at the U.S. Open.

The Thanks-for-Coming, It-Was-Great-to-See-You Guys

Vijay Singh (25 to 1): His time has probably come and gone. He doesn't put well enough to win a U.S. Open.

Anthony Kim (30 to 1): Doesn't have the intangibles yet to win majors. Plus, the U.S. Open requires patience, which is not how he likes to play. Throughout his career, this tournament will always give him trouble. Remember, he never played well at the Amateur either. The Masters, which rewards aggressiveness, is a much better fit for him.

Ian Poulter (30 to 1), Camilo Villegas (30 to 1), Sean O'Hair (30 to 1), Lee Westwood (35 to 1), Kenny Perry (35 to 1): These guys deserve a mention, and here it is.

Rory McIlroy (40 to 1): He's not ready for prime time. How on earth could he handle Tiger? Probably only Cabrera, Mickelson and Ogilvy have what it takes to do that.

Rocco Mediate (50 to 1): He should just try to enjoy the week. He earned it.

The No-Frigging-Way-He-Can-Win Guy

Sergio Garcia (100 to 1): There's no way in hell he wins this tournament. He lacks all of the intangibles it takes to win majors. He whines, he can't putt and he's got no fight in him. Wrong place, wrong time, wrong guy.

Jerry posts:

Wow, no love or line for Sean O'hair? He'll post a top 10 at least...

I know, I kinda agree. However, he has to win something for me to consider him a threat in what is the most demanding tournament out there. I know he has had some success, but not on any major level. I really like the guy and think he has a fantastic swing, but I want to see the results. I will say Jerry that I hope he makes me look bad and wins this thing.

Jeff posts:

So is Sergio never going to win a major? I am not a believer, but I think he has the game if he can get his head out of his arse to get it together mentally.

I used to think he would win several, but I am losing my confidence in him. His attitude is awful, I can't recal a bigger whiner in the last thirty years of following the game. He acts as if he is owed something from the game, just becasue he is "Sergio". If Tiger drove the ball as well as Sergio, he would win every major by double digits, Garcia is that good from the tee. The fact is the majority of girls playing under 10 soccer (I have 2 in my house) have better attitudes than Sergio. Look at Duval, the guy has no reason to stick his neck out and embarass himself like he has except for the fact that he loves to compete. I have more respect for his courage as a player than I will ever have for Garcia. Duval is a grinder, Sergio is just plain soft.

Black in the Day: Golf Magazine Top 100 Teacher Tom Patri dedicated himself to the game after his first visit to Bethpage Black

The year was 1972. I was 14 years old and infected beyond belief by the golf bug. One day I was reading the newspaper and saw a headline: "New York State Open to be Played at The Black Course at Bethpage State Park. Caddies Needed." Now, I had just won the Long Island Boys Championship and fancied myself quite the golfer. Surely one of the professionals in the event would welcome my depth of golf knowledge. Had I ever laid foot on the Black Course? No. Did I think this would matter? Of course not. I had years and years and years of competitive golf experience (three), had played in hundreds of tournaments (12), and had tons of Tour-proven caddie experience (none).

When the day finally came, hoards of caddie-hopefuls lined up around the first tee of the Black hoping to snag the next state PGA champion. Suddenly the caddie master's stern voice shouted out, "Patri!" I jumped to my feet. "Yeah, you, shorty—grab this trunk."

I had never seen a golf bag this big before. For those of you old enough to remember, it was a red-white-and-blue PGA Victor golf bag, and it belonged to Bill Collins. “Bill who?” I thought. I would learn much later that Bill had won four times on the PGA Tour, once defeating the great Arnold Palmer in a playoff to win the 1960 Houston Classic. He was also a member of the victorious 1961 Ryder Cup team. Bill later took a club job at the Brae Burn Club in Westchester County (which is why he was playing in the state PGA), and later he would win on the Senior Tour.

As I wrestled his bag onto my back and staggered toward the first tee only a few yards away, Bill said, "Son, do you need any help?"

"No, sir. My name is Tommy Patri, and I will be your caddie."

Bill and his group had to be howling inside. They also had to be taking bets on when I would collapse. Bill asked me how many times I had played the Black course.

I lied. "A few, sir."

We got started, and I didn’t see much through the third green. Head down, I was sweating buckets, trying my best to stay upright. Around the third hole I started to get my legs under me, balanced the bag a bit better, and at least felt that I could look up and watch some of the action. I remember walking down the path to the fourth tee and looking up and seeing that magnificent hole and its incredible bunker complex for the first time.

Bill must have seen my jaw drop. He chuckled and said, "Son, are you OK?" I mumbled something in response. Bill then proceeded to hit a bomb that split the fairway. I was watching golf being played at a level I had never been exposed to before on a magical course. Heady stuff to a golf-crazy 14-year-old.

As the day went on, I got stronger. I was excited to see every hole and watch Bill hit shot after shot that left me amazed. His drives flew long and straight. The thing I remember best was the thump the balata balls made coming off the wooden clubheads. I had never heard that sound before. That day turned out to be one of several days in my early teens that would cement my desire to live a life in this game.

Bill died in 2006. I never got to speak to him as an adult. I wish I had. Next week, when I walk the wonderful grounds of the Black Course with my wife and our 8-year-old son, I will tell him about Bill. I will patiently entertain my son's each and every question. Eight-year-olds have many. And I will remember how, 37 years ago, Bill Collins displayed enormous patience with me when we walked the Black together.

Thank you, Bill.